Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290001
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
GALE WARNING...                                                 
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END THU 
NIGHT FOR THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 74W-78W IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A STRONG 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 
11N-20N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 
THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 
9N-19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND 
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE 
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 74W/75W S 
OF 18N TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR 
SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W FROM S OF 19N 
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W-SW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A EDGE OF SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. 
WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ANY 
ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N17W ALONG 10N32W TO 11N43W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N50W THEN 
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
18W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS 
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1012 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR GAINSVILLE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING W ALONG 28N86W TO 29N88W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING E INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N TO THE 
SURFACE TROUGH E OF 87W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 
LOUISIANA WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N84W. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA W OF 
82W AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS 
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS 
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC 
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE  
NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA W OF 83W AND ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 21N. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER 
JAMAICA BUT ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE 
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. THIS 
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NEAR GALE 
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THU INCREASING GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
THROUGH THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. W CARIBBEAN 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN TONIGHT. E CARIBBEAN 
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE W MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND 
THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED 
NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW 
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SHIFT W TO OVER HISPANIOLA WED 
NIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH THU. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN THU 
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING 
COULD STILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER 
THE FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST 
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS ALONG 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 
32N76W THEN TO 31N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1012 MB 
LOW OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE TO 31N79W. 
THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 
A LINE FROM 26N77W 29N70W TO 32N62W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AND W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM S-SW 
OF THE AZORES WITH A NARROWING RIDGE AXIS S OF THE W ATLC 
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W TO A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 
26N60W THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THIS NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TONIGHT AND 
WED. THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT THEN 
SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 00:01:51 UTC