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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 32.7W AT 03/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 570 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 9 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE STRONG 
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS ACROSS FRED TONIGHT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 30W-
32.5W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 47W FROM 9N-16N 
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW DOES NOT SHOW 
ANY SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA NEAR 
19N77W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W MOVING W 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW 
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE S OF 14N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N15W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N23W 
CONTINUING ALONG 12N28W TO 8N49W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 28W-34W AND FROM 9N-
12N BETWEEN 36W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 23W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS NARROWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS AND NOW ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER 
TO 24N94W WHERE IT MEETS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM E 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 90W-94W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 27N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN 
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
DOTTING THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 90W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS 
AT 03/0300 UTC ALONG THE NW GULF COAST FROM 29N92W TO INLAND 
OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE 
INTO FRI. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE 
E/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO 
TO 17N75W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N83W CONTINUING TO 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER 
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA W OF 72W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA 
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W 
12N80W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. THIS IS LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN 
WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE 
IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE SAT AS THE WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS. THE W 
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E 
CARIBBEAN SAT. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO 
TO 17N75W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N83W AND IS 
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
N OF 18N TO OVER S HAITI W OF 72W. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE 
CENTRAL ATLC WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N/S ORIENTATED THU NIGHT 
GIVING THE ISLAND N FLOW ALOFT FRI AND SAT. MOISTURE WILL LINGER 
THROUGH EARLY THU THEN INCREASE AGAIN SAT WITH THE APPROACH OF 
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND A CHANCE OF 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU WITH AN INCREASE AGAIN 
ON SAT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER 
THE W ATLC TO 67W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W...A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 19N60W...AND A 
SECOND 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 30N78W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 50W-67W SUPPORTING A BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W ALONG 26N54W TO 25N62W 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
22N-26N BETWEEN 54W-61W. A FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E ATLC IS 
BEING INTRUDED BY A T.S. FRED AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH 
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS 
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
FRI THEN SETTLES ALONG 28N/29N SAT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 05:47:14 UTC