000
AXNT20 KNHC 231905
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: A Gale Warning has been issued by
Meteo-France for the waters offshore Agadir. Gale force N winds
are anticipated along with severe gusts through 24/00z. For more 
information, please see Meteo-France's website at: 
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W from
03N to 17N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 08N to 13N 
between 24W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W from 04N 
to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 12N between 39W and 46W.

A large tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis 
near 58W from 18N southward. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 16N between 56W
and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 11N26W, and then westward to 10.5N37W.
The ITCZ then extends from 10.5N37W to 07N54W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is seen along and within 100 nm of both of
these features between 31W and 36W, as well as between 46W and
55W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally S
of 12N and W of 75W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An approaching cold front at the surface and weak troughing aloft
over the Gulf are leading to scattered moderate convection in the
north-central Gulf N of 26N between 85W and 92W. In the SE Gulf
and Florida Straits, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring as an upper-level low spins overhead. Away from 
convection, a weak 1018 mb high is leading to moderate or weaker 
anticyclonic winds and seas of less than 3 ft across much of the
basin.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure near the southeastern 
U.S. coast is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Over the next day or two, this system is forecast to move west- 
southwestward into the north-central portion of the Gulf where 
some slow development is possible. By this weekend, the system is 
likely to move inland, ending its chances for development. This 
system has a low chance for tropical cyclone development. 
Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are expected in association with this system across 
most of the NE and north- central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh northeast to east winds are forecast along the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland 
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of weak troughing aloft and convergent surface winds
are leading to scattered moderate convection occurring over
portions of the E Caribbean generally N of 12.5N and E of 70W. In
the NW Caribbean, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring N of 16.5N and W of 75W as an upper-level low spins
overhead. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and the 1010 mb Colombia Low is leading to
fresh to strong trades in the central and SW Caribbean, along with
6-9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in
the E Caribbean away from convection, while moderate or weaker
winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean through the end of the week. Fresh to 
locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in the 
Windward Passage are expected through the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring in convergent 
surface flow near and to the east of a 1022 mb surface high near
28N55W. To the west, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring W of 78W, attributed to an upper level low over the
region. All other convection in the basin is associated with
tropical waves or the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Much of the remaining
Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming from the 1031 mb Azores
high. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 6-8 ft occurring in an area from 13N to 20N between 
50W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas 
of 6-8 ft are occurring N of 18N and E of 35W, with locally strong
NE winds occurring in between the Canary Islands, as well as near
the coasts of Morocco, Western Sahara, and Mauritania. Much of 
the remaining basin is seeing moderate or weaker winds and seas of
3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola, 
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong 
winds and moderate seas are expected through the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly 
moderate seas are expected. A frontal boundary is forecast to 
reach the NE waters toward the end of the work-week and dissipate,
with little change expected in winds and seas. 

$$
Adams