000
AXNT20 KNHC 282306
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged off Africa into the far eastern
tropical Atlantic along 18W, from 03N to 18N, moving W at around
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N E of
21W. 

An central tropical Atlantic is along 38W, south of 18N, moving 
westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 08N to 12N and between 35W and 40W.

A large tropical wave is along 66W from 20N across Puerto Rico and
the eastern Caribbean and into Venezuela, moving W at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of
this wave axis, in the vicinity of Puerto Rico. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, from the Windward
Passage to Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the northern portion of this
wave near Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and extends west-southwestward through a 1012
mb surface low near 10N37W, and then southwestward to 06N41W. The
ITCZ then extends from 06N41W to 04N48W to the coast of Guyana
near 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and 
within 200 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 23W and 35W. 
Scattered moderate convection is also seen along and near the 
ITCZ generally S of 10N and W of 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A band of convection is moving west into the eastern Bay of
Campeche due to a thermally induced diurnal trough. Otherwise
modest high pressure centered in the NW Gulf is suppressing
convection to only isolated in nature, and confined to the south-
central and southeast basin. Ahead of the Yucatan trough, fresh NE
winds are observed, otherwise winds are moderate or less in the
basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf and less than 3 ft in the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will 
develop off the Yucatan Peninsula tonight as a trough develops 
inland and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, 
high pressure will dominate the basin through Sat, supporting 
mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. The
high pressure will weaken some Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing
generally S of 16N and W of 80W, and also along the coasts of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a
tropical wave that is moving into the eastern Pacific. The
remaining convection near the Greater Antilles is associated with
tropical waves that are described in Tropical Waves section above.

The gradient between the Colombian low and the subtropical ridge N
of the basin is leading to the typical trade-wind dominated
regime, with moderate to fresh E winds over most of the basin.
Strong winds are ongoing in the south-central basin where the
gradient is tightest closest to the low center. In the NW basin,
winds are mainly gentle. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central and SW
basin, 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the
NW.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds
and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong 
winds will pulse off Colombia overnight through Sat as the high 
pressure builds north of the area. Generally moderate winds and 
seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied by 
scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through 
the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and through the
eastern Caribbean later on Sat and Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough sections above for
information on convection in deep tropics S of 20N. A deep-layer
trough, with an axis extending from roughly 26N60W to 21N65W is 
inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection mainly 
on the eastern side of the axis, from 22N to 26N between 58W and
63W. A surface trough from SW of Bermuda to the central Bahamas is
weakening and is no longer producing any significant convection.

Surface ridging continues to be the dominant feature over the
basin, with the Azores high extending SW into the region. 
This is leading to moderate or weaker winds and seas N of 23N,
except for waters E of 25W, where fresh to locally strong NE winds
offshore Africa are inducing seas of 6 to 8 ft. For areas to the
south, mainly moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region through Sat, supporting
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over 
the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may bring 
fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds over the far 
southeastern waters Fri through Sat night.

$$
Konarik