000
AXNT20 KNHC 200413
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0413 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa into
the eastern Atlantic. The wave axis is near 20W from 14N 
southward. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03N to 
09N between the wave axis and 27.5W. 

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 15N 
southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is depicted from 04N to 10.5N between 32W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N southward, 
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
depicted at this time in association with the wave. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from south of Dominican 
Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, moving westward 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the 
central Caribbean Sea and near the Venezuela- Colombia border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 13N17W and extends
southwestward to 08N26W. The ITCZ continues westward from that 
point to 08N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N38W to
08N48W. Convection near the area is related to the tropical waves
described above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A peripheral rainband associated with the now T.D. Erick over the 
Oaxaca State, Mexico, is causing numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate
convection is also present offshore of northern and western 
Florida as afternoon land convection drifts to the offshore waters
as it weakens. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs westward from 
northern Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border. Moderate to 
fresh SE winds and moderate seas dominate the southwestern and 
west-cental Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle 
winds and slight seas are noted at the northeastern and east- 
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SSE winds with moderate 
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, residual deep tropical moisture from former 
eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Erick will linger over the 
western and SW Gulf zones through Sat leading to unsettled weather
in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. 
This activity may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher
seas. Otherwise, fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon 
and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough 
develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh 
east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are expected over
the central and western Gulf through the weekend, then 
diminishing early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the
basin.

A 1030 mb north Atlantic high centered near 41.5N40W continues to
provide a robust trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. 
Convergent SE winds are creating isolated thunderstorms at the 
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Strong to 
near-gale NE to E winds and rough seas are occurring at the 
south- central basin. Moderate to strong E winds and moderate seas
are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea, except light to gentle winds with slight seas near Costa Rica
and Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge over the 
Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over the 
central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to 
near gale force off Colombia at night. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the
basin.

Convergent SW winds to the south of a stationary front near 32W 
are producing scattered moderate convection north of 30N between 
30W and 45W. A pronounced subtropical ridge stretches westward 
from a 1030 mb high near 42.5N40W. These features are dominating 
the Atlantic waters north of 23N and between 22W and 77W with 
light to gentle winds and moderate seas. To the south from 07.5N 
to 23N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are evident. Gentle to 
moderate Ne to E winds and moderate seas prevail for the 
remaining Atlantic waters west of 35W, except for fresh to locally
strong winds off of Dakar and near the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge will prevail 
along 29N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to 
locally rough seas are forecast south of the ridge through the 
forecast period. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere.

$$
KRV