238 
AXNT20 KNHC 290904
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 10N to 12N between 20W and 23W. 

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at around 5 kt. A 1012 mb low pres is noted near 
10N37W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to
strong winds within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 09N to 11N and between 38W and 41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active
over the Mona Passage. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 18N to 20N between 74W and 76W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found within 90 nm of the Central
American coast from western Panama to Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and
to 05N45W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N53W. In addition to
the convection described in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered
moderate convection is found from 16N to 19N and between 16W and 
19W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Upper jet dynamics is supporting a line of showers and
thunderstorms from the east-central Gulf to the south-central
Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active off the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico, in the far southwest Gulf. A trough is
analyzed off the western coast of Yucatan. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds near this trough over the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes
showed 2 to 4 ft seas in this area. Elsewhere, 1021 mb high 
pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf off Texas, with a
weak trough over the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting
gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin into Sat,
supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to 
moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast from
Belize to eastern Honduras, and from central Nicaragua to western
Panama. These thunderstorms are the result of complex interactions
of a tropical wave in the vicinity and an upper trough over region
extending along 85W from the Gulf of Honduras to off the Pacific
coast of Nicaragua. Other convection is described above in the 
Tropical Wave section. Lower pressure extends over the southwest 
Caribbean along the monsoon trough from northern Colombia westward
to Costa Rica, anchored by 1009 mb low pressure over northern 
Colombia. While the subtropical ridge north of the area is not 
particularly strong, there is enough of a gradient with the lower 
pressure area to support fresh to locally strong trade winds over 
the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds and
rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with winds
pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally moderate 
winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied
by scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move 
through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and 
through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting an area of thunderstorms from
24N to 27N between 58W and 65W, with a cluster of numerous
thunderstorms near 24N65W. A surface trough extends from this
cluster southward toward the Mona Passage. Another trough reaches
from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. This pattern is
supporting mostly gentle breezes west of 65W, along with 2 to 3 
ft seas, although moderate to fresh E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are
likely still ongoing off the north coast of Hispaniola. The rest 
of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an extensive 
high pressure system located north of the Azores. Fresh to locally
strong N-NE winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 30W and
north of 20N. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the forecast region into Sat, supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region. The 
northern portion of a tropical wave may bring fresh to locally 
strong east to southeast winds north of the Leeward Islands Fri 
through Sat night.

$$
Christensen