Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 8N15W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W INT0 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 
8N-19W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE N GULF IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND HAS 
LOST ITS UPPER SUPPORT. AT 15/0300 UTC THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 
1017 MB LOW JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO 
28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE 
W GULF TO NEAR 27N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT E OF 87W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF 
WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N W OF 
94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
W ATLC OVER THE E GULF S OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB 
HIGH E OF BERMUDA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W TO 
INLAND OVER TEXAS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT IN THEN NE GULF WILL EXIT LATER 
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
WED NIGHT REACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO THU THEN STALL 
FROM N FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO FRI AND SAT. A SURFACE LOW 
WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE NW GULF ON SAT THEN QUICKLY 
MOVE TO FAR W FLORIDA LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
SW TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE 
SE CONUS ON SUN WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
SW NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN EXITING THE GULF SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE HAS DISSIPATED. 
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
REMAINS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N79W TO 20N66W 
INCLUDING JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE 
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA WITH 
THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING N TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES 
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN 
THROUGH FRI. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF 
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST E OF 
BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS WSW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC 
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 
WEAK 1020 MB LOW NEAR 32N43W ALONG 29N46W TO 26N51W WHERE IT 
MEANDERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N59W TO N OF THE MONA 
PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE 
COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING 
FROM 31N33W TO 26N36W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER. A SECOND NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTEND INTO THE E ATLC 
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES 
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING S ALONG 25W GIVING THE AREA 
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W 
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N58W TO 12N56W WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THESE 
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATER THIS 
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS 
SE WED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY 
FRI REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 29N69W AND STATIONARY TO 
DAYTONA BEACH ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N SUN AS 
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF 
THE SE CONUS WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO W CUBA BY LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW