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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051723
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
31N74W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAINLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N22W AND
EXTENDS TO 02N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE ITCZ FROM
10N48W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-07N
BETWEEN 11W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N
BETWEEN 30W-40W AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N95W IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING A GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N80W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AT 16N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND E CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N
BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. THE INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY IN CUBA
ESTIMATES 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5-9 INCHES ACROSS THE
ISLAND...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE S-CENTRAL REGION. TO THE
E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...        

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE
FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM A 996 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED N OF OUR AREA NEAR 33N73W. THE FRONT WAS ANALYZED
FROM THE LOW TO 27N76W TO 23N79W. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT AFFECTING
THE AREA BETWEEN 67W AND 78W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N41W. EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA