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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
04S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W...FROM 07S TO 02N BETWEEN 
20W AND 30W AND FROM 02S TO 04N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER 
THE NE CONUS COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S 
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY 
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 95W...HIGHEST ON THE 
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE 
GRADIENT. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 
23N95W TO 20N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
ALONG 24N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO 
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST 
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE NE TO E FLOW SUPPORT 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 
25N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG 
PROBABILITIES W OF 94W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W. 
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF REPORT FOG CONDITIONS N OF 27N W OF 
89W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN 
AND ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...MONA 
PASSAGE...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 
14N. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 
TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE 
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS 
AND PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS 
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM 
30N66W SW TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY 
A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 34N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND 
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SUNDAY MORNING
...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH 
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Sunday, 01-Mar-2015 06:01:25 UTC