AXNT20 KNHC 282341
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 17N20W to a 1010 mb low near 11N21W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within broad area of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 7N-14N between 20W-24W.
A tropical wave is moving over the central Tropical Atlantic with
axis from 18N38W to 10N38W, moving west at about 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. A 700 mb trough is depicted by the models between
38W-42W and a surge moisture prevails in the wave's environment as
depicted by SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated
convection is observed across the southern portion of the wave
south of 15N between 37W- 41W.
A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic extending its
axis from 17N51W to 10N51W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough south of
16N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a
limited surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection is observed at this
time as the wave as Saharan dust is inhibiting any activity.
A tropical wave in the west Caribbean with axis extending from
23N83W to 12N84W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
This wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted
in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated
convection is observed within this wave affecting the far west
Caribbean waters west of 80W.
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W to 10N24W to a 1011 mb low near 13N35W to
11N44W. The ITCZ begins from that point and continues to 08N56W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and
surface lows, isolated convection prevails within 200 nm south of
the Monsoon Trough between 30W-40W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An inverted upper-level trough dominates the western Gulf of
Mexico with axis extending from the Bay of Campeche to 30N93W. This
feature is supporting isolated convection across the whole basin.
Scattered moderate convection is moving from the Yucatan Peninsula
to the west reaching the Bay of Campeche. This activity is mostly
generated by diurnal heating. At the surface, a 1019 mb high is
centered over the west Atlantic extending its ridge across the
northern portion of the basin. A surface trough extends from
29N90W to 25N90W supporting isolated moderate convection.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
across the Gulf waters. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
surface ridge to persist. The upper level trough will move west
enhancing convection across the western Gulf. A thermal trough
will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening
through the week.
A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. The eastern portion of the
upper-level trough that extends across the Gulf of Mexico is
supporting scattered convection across the western Caribbean in
combination with the tropical wave mainly west of 80W. The
Monsoon Trough extends north of Panama with isolated convection
south 10N between 78W-83W. Fair weather prevails across the
central and east Caribbean as Saharan dust and dry air dominate
these areas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin with the strongest ones prevailing just north of
Colombia south of 16N between 69W-76W. The tropical wave to
continue moving west during the next 24 hours with convection.
Little change is expected elsewhere. The next tropical wave will
enter the east Caribbean by late Friday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the western
portion of the island at this time induced by diurnal heating.
This weather pattern will continue through the next 24 hours.
Three tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. A 1019 mb surface
high is centered across the west Atlantic near 28N76W. To the
east, another surface ridge prevails extending across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high near 42N31W.
Little change is expected through the next 24 hours.
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