Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 232348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N32W TO 12N31W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED 
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE LIKELY DUE TO SAHARAN 
DUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 13N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE WAVE INTERACTED WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. WHILE 
LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PEELED OFF 
TO THE NORTHEAST...PARTIAL LEFTOVER ENERGY CONTINUES WESTWARD AS 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 49W-57W. SOME 
OF THIS LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT NE 
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
04N16W TO 03N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 02N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 09W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS 
EVENING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TO A BASE NEAR 26N98W. WEST TO 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS... 
HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS FLOW IS COMPRISED OF VERY DRY AIR. WITH 
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE CURRENTLY OR ADVECTION OF 
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 27N88W HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE BASIN AS SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS 
SURROUND THE HIGH WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 
TO 20 KT OBSERVED W OF 92W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO 
SLIDE NORTHWARD TO THE SE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND LEAVING MOSTLY 
MODERATE E-SE WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS 
NEAR 14N86W NE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. 
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
WATERS...PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING 
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N83W 
TO 16N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
MAINLY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 22N78W TO 13N86W OVER INTERIOR NICARAGUA. THIS 
AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS PERSISTED 
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS CUBA AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH 
FLOODING AND POTENTIAL MUDSLIDES REMAINS HIGH. THE SURFACE LOW 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 36 HOURS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING DAMPENING OUT OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THE WEEKEND. EAST-SOUTHEAST 
TRADES CURRENTLY W OF 78W WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD BY 
FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST- 
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE S OF 15N E OF 64W WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE 
VENEZUELA. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL HELP TO 
PROMOTE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
24N62W IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA STRETCHING NE 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 68W-79W. 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATION SUPPORTS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING 
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N45W. HOWEVER...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT 
ANALYZED ALONG 32N22W TO 29N30W TO 28N40W TO 30N48W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 
16N22W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST 
ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST 
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 50W WITH CLEARING AROUND THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN