|
|
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 132342
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N24W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 28W CONTINUING TO BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 14W-17W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS OVER ALABAMA AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE
SE CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING LIGHT E-SE FLOW AND FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER AND
MORE SLY FLOW UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE WRN HALF. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EXTENDING
FROM 30N95W TO 26N98W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS REGION. SINCE THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
WELL TO THE N OF THE BASIN THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND LIFT N OF THE
AREA ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE WRN GULF.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF
89W TO THE FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
THE SE CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING
INTO THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE
BASIN WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR AXIS FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N69W TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 17N77W 14N82W. AN
ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED SLIGHTLY STRONGER N-NE
WINDS TO THE N OF THE AXIS WITH WEAKER NE WINDS TO THE S.
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA N OF 16N
BETWEEN 67W-74W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT THE SHEAR AXIS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W CONTINUING SW TOWARD
HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N59W 21N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
THE ISLAND NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC.
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THIS AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE ERN
CONUS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG 22N50W TO 44N39W SUPPORTING A WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH NEAR 28N39W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE E
ALONG 29W FROM 39N-21N WHERE IT TURNS SW TO 17N41W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SKIMS THE NRN
BOUNDARY OF THE AREA ALONG 32N28W 30N33W 32N39W. A WEAK 1019 MB
LOW IS ALSO ANALYZED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 30N31W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 27W-31W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS RANGING FROM THE ITCZ REGION TO W
AFRICA...AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE ITCZ. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 3N9W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON
|
|
|
|
|
