433 
AXNT20 KNHC 040908
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: 
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable
of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds
through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground
remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. According to the
most recent models, this afternoon and Thu afternoon will be the 
days with the most significant precipitation over north-central 
Dominican Republic and northeast Haiti. There are also indications
that significant rainfall could occur over eastern Cuba and the 
Cayman Islands where abundant moisture will remain in place. 
Please refer to products from your local weather service for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 11N 
southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 11N southward, 
and moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 12N southward to
northern Venezuela, and moving west near 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described below.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from the Dominican
Republic southward, and moving west at 10 kt. No deep convection
is noted over water.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W/86W from near
western Cuba southward to eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and 
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No deep convection is noted over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W then continues 
southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 06N36W, 
then from 05N39W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 12W and 52W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near eastern Panama,
and northwestern Colombia, and from 11N to 14.5N between 80W and
83W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms near the
outer coastal waters boundary off Florida. Otherwise, a surface 
ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near 
Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 4 
to 7 ft are present across the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche, locally strong near Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to 
moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist for the rest of the 
Gulf, except 2 to 4 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the basin 
through the next several days. This pattern will support generally
moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf, fresh to 
occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf,
and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. By Thu, the 
ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy 
conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and 
Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing 
visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the western half 
of the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event. 

A mid-level trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms near Jamaica and east of Nicaragua. Fresh to locally
strong SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the eastern 
basin. Moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at 
the central basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E 
to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, 
including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will 
support fresh to strong trade winds across the east-central 
Caribbean through early this morning, with seas to near 8 ft. A 
deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the SW 
Caribbean will continue to support active thunderstorms across 
north-central portions through today. As this feature moves E-NE 
across the Atlantic, associated weather will shift across the NE 
Caribbean this evening through Thu. Fresh trade winds will return 
to southeast portions of the basin Thu evening through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N41W to 26N50W, then continues westward as a stationary 
front through 24N64W to 26N76W. Patchy showers are occurring up 
to 60 nm along either side of the cold front. Divergent flow 
aloft is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection from
19N to 31N between 55W and 65W, and from 20N to 27N between 65W
and 72W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves 
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate
to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident from 19N
to 30N between 57W and 68W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere north of 20N and west of 30W, along with seas of mainly 
3 to 5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas are
south of 20N and west of 30W, with moderate winds east of 30W, 
except moderate to fresh north of 13N between Africa and the 
Canary islands to the Cabo Verde Islands where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front
will meander and weaken into a surface trough later today. A deep-
layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and into the SW 
Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region through Thu, and 
maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and 72W, that will shift
E and NE Tue through Thu. The interaction of the upper trough and
the stationary front/surface trough is expected to lead to 
elongated surface low pressure across NE portions later today, and
shift NE and out of the area on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are
forecast ahead of this trough/low as it move across these waters.
Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin Wed then 
shift slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front may drop 
into the NW waters Sat. 

$$
Lewitsky