131 
AXNT20 KNHC 291059
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to
14N with axis near 32W, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 15N between 26W and
40W.  

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 11N
with axis near 55W, moving westward at about 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 48W and 60W.  

A tropical wave in the W Caribbean extends to the S of 21N with
axis near 80W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau close to 12N16W to 06N25. No ITCZ is apparent. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 10W and 22W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong thunderstorms are moving off the Texas and NE Mexico 
coasts. These storms are producing frequent lightning, gusty winds
and locally rough seas. Lower pressures remains across the western
half of the basin while weak surface ridging extends the waters E
of 90W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds W
of 90W and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere, except for
fresh SE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are slight to
moderate, except in the area of thunderstorms where rough seas are
expected.  

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate 
across the Gulf through Sun. As a result, winds will pulse 
moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. A weak 
cold front moving across the far NE Gulf will continue to support 
gentle W to NW winds over that region this morning. Otherwise, 
fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions
of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night 
for the next two days. Haze west of 89W due to agricultural fires 
over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the 
next couple of days, impacting visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean is causing 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the Windward 
Passage and the SW Caribbean. Smoke from agricultural fires over 
Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of 
Honduras. The gradient between high pressure N of the area and
lower pressure across the SW waters due to the extension of the E
Pac monsoon into Colombia continues to support fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh
winds over the E waters. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
Gulf of Honduras while light to gentle winds dominate elsewhere
over the NW waters. Seas are mainly moderate, except for rough
seas to 9 ft over the south-central region.  

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high 
pressure and associated ridging north of the area and low pressure
along near Colombia will force fresh to strong trades over the S 
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through today. Winds will 
become moderate to fresh from Thu through the weekend. The tropical
wave is forecast to move across Central America into the E Pacific
waters tonight into Thu. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging extending from high pressure over the NW Atlantic
is contributing towards moderate or lighter winds across the 
region while a weak cold front moves across the NE Florida
offshore waters this morning. The remainder subtropical Atlantic
remains under the influence of surface ridging, which is
suppoting gentle to moderate winds. The ridge is intersected by a
weak surface trough from 31N46W SW to the NE Caribbean, which is
generating scattered showers across the offshore zones E of the
central and southern Bahamas. Seas are moderate basin-wide. 

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will accompany the cold front as it moves eastward toward the 
Greater Antilles later this week and into the weekend, bringing 
moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, winds and seas away from the 
thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few days across
the forecast waters.

$$
Ramos