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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211713
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO 
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 05N40W  
TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N W OF 30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS 
ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED N OF THE 
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ TO 
THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM 28N82W TO 25N90W TO 18N95W. AHEAD OF 
THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GULF...A STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 28N85W SW TO THE 
GULF OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N92W TO 20N96W. THE WIND PATTERN ALOFT 
ALLOWS FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 26N86W TO 21N87W SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM E 
OF ITS AXIS FROM 21N-25N. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WIND OF 5-15 KT 
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN 
TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT 
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE...A RIDGE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE 
FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE 
BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY 
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN 
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 18N82W TO 10N82W ENHANCE SIMILAR 
SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF 18N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING 
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT TRADES OF 5-10 KT 
ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE 
ELSEWHERE...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO 
REMAIN ON THE 20-25 KT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER SPREADING 
WESTWARD TO THE REMAINDER BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE SW N ATLC STRENGTHENS FROM MON TO TUE.

HISPANIOLA...                   

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER 
THE EASTERN BASIN CARIBBEAN WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHERN ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE SW N ATLC 
WATERS FROM 29N81W TO 30N76W. THE CURRENT OF UPPER-LEVEL 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THIS PORTION OF THE 
ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 70W. OVER 
THE CENTRAL BASIN...A NARROW AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT WITH 
BASE NEAR 25N36W SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF 
DISCUSSION THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 29N41W SW TO 23N50W. 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N38W TO 
23N38W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING 
DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN BASIN N OF 22N. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BY TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Dec-2014 17:13:34 UTC