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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 242339
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA ALONG COASTAL WEST 
AFRICA NEAR 9N14W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT 
TO 7N29W TO 5N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N 
BETWEEN 18W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER 
THE SOUTHERN GULF. TO THE NW...A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDING TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL 
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. 
IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NW MEXICO...AND AS 
A COLD FRONT FROM 27N105W TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W 
TO 30N88W. SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 23N94W 
TO 30N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS 
BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 26N. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT PREVAILS 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGH WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT 
PREVAILS S OF THE TROUGH. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW 
GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS 
OF THE BASIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION  
AS IT MOVES E. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE 
GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 
19N83W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. 
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THIS MOMENT...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG 82W...BETWEEN 19N-22N. 
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. DRIER AIR 
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LIMITING CONVECTION. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND 
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND 
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE S GULF.

...HISPANIOLA... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS EASTWARD WHILE 
LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR WEATHER 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ITS 
AXIS NE REACHING THE W ATLANTIC. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS NEAR 45W. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N52W TO 
31N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
FRONT. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE 
AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N- 
28N BETWEEN 44W-47W. N OF 30N...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE 
AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER 
THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Nov-2014 23:39:45 UTC