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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301807
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 19.9W AT 30/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 226 NM E-SE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING 
NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 16N 
E OF 24W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TRPCL WAVE IS WITHIN 550 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS 
NEAR 51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA 
LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 
52W AND 56W. NO CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER 
WIND SHEAR AND SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR WITHIN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 
65W...MOVING W AT 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH THE 
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W OF T.S. FRED FROM 09N23W TO 
08N30W TO 07N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N40W AND CONTINUES TO 
10N48W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FRED AND 
THE TRPCL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N 
BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN 
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N82W TO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS 
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 85W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND 
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND 
THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 19N93W WITH 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 22N89W. SCATTERED TO 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR SHOWER 
ACTIVITY IS OFF THE S-SE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS THROUGH THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 
16N W OF 78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OFF 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. THE OTHER ARE OF CONVECTION IS OVER 
THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TRPCL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SEE TRPCL WAVES SECTION 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. NE TO E WINDS OF 
25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS OF 
9 TO 11 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 69W AND 78W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. SHOWERS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL 
MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TOMORROW SUPPORTING SHOWERS IN THE 
NORTHERN-CENTRAL BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPCL WAVE ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT 
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS OVER ADJACENT WATERS S OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
IN THE MONA PASSAGE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE W 
TODAY...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE ISLAND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FRED EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM 
OVER N FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW N ATLC W OF 76W. 
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 30N48W SW TO 26N59W TO 24N68W AND ENHACES ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. SURFACE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Aug-2015 18:07:57 UTC