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Tropical Storm ODILE Public Advisory


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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 162048
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 113.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SOUTH OF MULEGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF GUAYMAS
HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM GUAYMAS TO PUERTO PENASCO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 29.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...
AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND
INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE ODILE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
AFTER ODILE MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42
MPH...69 KM/H AND A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H...WERE REPORTED AT
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES...
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS...AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR SAN FELIPE AROUND TO
NEAR PUERTO PENASCO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
AT BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO SINCE THIS MORNING.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 9
INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO...AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 20:48:50 UTC