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Tropical Storm POLO Public Advisory


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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Sep-2014 08:34:13 UTC