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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 271434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017
1500 UTC THU JUL 27 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 124.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 23.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 124.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA