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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 230852
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 115.2W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 115.2W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 117.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 121.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 14.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY