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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 152221
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2014

CORRECTED BREAK POINT FOR TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ...AND DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM
NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA ON THE
EAST COAST

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 111.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 111.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 111.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.8N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.0N 113.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 29.7N 113.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Sep-2014 22:21:15 UTC