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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 290252
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.5N 139.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.3N 139.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.0N 146.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 138.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE