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Tropical Storm HILARY Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 231434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 102.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 102.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.1N 103.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.8N 104.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 107.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 102.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE