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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 250231
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.9N 123.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART