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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 251437
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 116.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE