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Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 240256
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL
ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY