Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

U.S. Watch/Warning   Local Products  


000
WTNT25 KNHC 210259
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  67.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 130SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  67.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  67.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N  68.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N  70.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.7N  71.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.8N  72.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 32.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  67.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA