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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Advisory


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000
WTNT24 KNHC 291451
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  66.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE  50SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 150SE  60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  66.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  65.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.3N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE  50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.1N  70.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.9N  71.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.9N  72.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.3N  74.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N  75.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N  66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN