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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory


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000
WTNT24 KNHC 011449
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI FROM THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THAT COUNTRY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.  A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  73.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  50SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  73.4W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  73.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N  73.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE  70SE  50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N  74.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE  60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N  75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  65SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 110SE  70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N  75.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE  80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N  75.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N  76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  73.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN