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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory


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U.S. Watch/Warning   Local Statements  


000
WTNT23 KNHC 012048
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  61.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  61.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  60.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N  63.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N  66.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N  69.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.4N  72.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N  74.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 33.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 38.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  61.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Aug-2014 20:48:31 UTC