Hurricane IDA Forecast/Advisory

000
WTNT21 KNHC 090251
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2009

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS TO AUCILLA
RIVER FLORIDA.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  86.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE  45SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE  90SE  45SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  86.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  86.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.8N  87.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.5N  87.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N  87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.2N  85.8W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 125SE  90SW  45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N  82.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N  86.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG