Hurricane IDA Forecast/Advisory

000
WTNT21 KNHC 081757
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1800 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA.  A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA.  THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.  ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  86.1W AT 08/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  86.1W AT 08/1800Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  85.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N  87.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...135NE  75SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.6N  88.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N  88.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N  87.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  75SE  75SW  45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N  81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  86.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN