Hurricane IDA Forecast/Advisory

000
WTNT21 KNHC 080711
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
0715 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009

AT 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  85.4W AT 08/0715Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  75SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  85.4W AT 08/0715Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  84.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N  85.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...135NE  75SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N  87.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  40SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.4N  87.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  40SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.7N  87.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...175NE 105SE  45SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N  85.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N  85.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN