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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171456
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

First-light visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with NOAA
Doppler radar data from Yuma and Tucson, suggest that the low-level
center of Odile is still over the northern Gulf of California while
the mid- and upper-level circulations are displaced well to the
northeast over northwestern Mexico. As a result, satellite intensity
estimates have been rapidly decreasing, and the initial intensity
estimate has been lowered to 35 kt. The combination of the low-level
blocking effect of the mountains of northwestern Mexico, plus
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and abundant dry air
ahead of the aforementioned trough noted in water vapor imagery, are
expected to induce continued weakening, and Odile could potentially
degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate as early as this
afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is now 035/05 kt.  A strong ridge
extending westward over Mexico, in conjunction with an approaching
mid-/upper-level trough to the west of Baja California, should keep
Odile moving toward the northeast over the next day or so. The
center of Odile or its remnants is expected to move slowly across
the northern Gulf of California today, and move into northwestern
Mexico and southern Arizona tonight and Thursday.  The new forecast
track is just an update of the previous track and lies near the
consensus model TVCE. Alternatively, the low-level circulation could
continue to separate from the circulation aloft and remain behind
over the Gulf of California.

The primary threat with Odile and its remnants will be heavy
rainfall due to the large plume of deep tropical moisture that will
continue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern
United States over the next couple of days.  These heavy rains will
likely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas. Please see information from your local weather office for
more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 30.6N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart




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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 14:56:22 UTC