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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ45 KNHC 230846

400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deep
convection associated with the low pressure area located south of
Mexico has become much better organized overnight.  A fortuitous
0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase in
banding and was also very helpful in determining the center
location.  Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT pass
which indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently well
defined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropical
depression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.  The
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with
Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB.

The depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt or
less during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow for
steady strengthening.  Despite these seemingly favorable
conditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much less
strengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show a
peak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days.  Given the
expected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above
the dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than the
SHIPS and LGEM.  Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weaken
the cyclone.

Since the depression is still in the formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14.  A strong mid- to upper-
level ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the Baja
California peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestward
during the next several days.  By day 4, the cyclone is forecast
to turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of
the ridge.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall
scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the
cyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize.
The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensus
and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model.


INIT  23/0900Z 13.1N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

Forecaster Brown