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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142058
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Odile has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle since the
previous advisory, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
has found an inner eye of about 10-12 nmi diameter and an outer eye
of 36 nmi diameter. Despite this normally unfavorable inner-core
structure, the central pressure has decreased to 922 mb and the 700-
mb maximum flight-level winds have increased from 122 kt to 134 kt
during the two passes through the northeastern quadrant. The highest
SFMR winds measured thus far have only been around 100 kt. However,
given the strong flight-level winds and the very low central
pressure, the initial intensity has only been decreased slightly to
110 kt, which is a blend of the SFMR winds and surface-adjusted
flight-level winds.

Major Hurricane Odile is moving north-northwestward or 330/13 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track
reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico is expected to keep
Odile moving north-northwestward to northwestward during the next
72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to rapidly
weaken, with the low-level circulation decoupling from the mid- and
upper-level circulations. By Days 4 and 5, the shallow cyclone is
expected to become stationary or drift eastward within weak
low-level westerly flow. The models are tightly clustered through
72 hours, but diverge significantly after that with the ECMWF model
taking Odile intact across northern Baja and into the southwestern
U.S., while the GFS model keeps Odile's remnant low west of Baja
California. The official forecast leans heavily toward the GFS model
on Days 4 and 5 due to the expected rapid weakening of Odile. The
NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly closer to Baja
California, but not as far eastward as the consensus model TCVE.

Given that the central pressure has continued to decrease, and
satellite imagery and recon data suggest that the concentric
eyewall cycle could be coming to an end, some re-strengthening
overnight during the convective maximum period is a very distinct
possibility. During the 12-36 hour time frame, interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Baja California should induce gradual
weakening. By 48 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected due
to sharply decreasing sea-surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and is close to the consensus model IVCN.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 21.1N 108.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 22.6N 110.1W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 25.4N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 26.5N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 27.8N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 28.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 28.5N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart




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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Sep-2014 20:59:06 UTC