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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ45 KNHC 170849

200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The center of Odile is currently crossing the northern Gulf of
California, with satellite imagery and radar data from the Yuma,
Arizona, WSR-88D indicating that most of the associated convection
is now occurring in the northeastern semicircle.  This is likely due
to a combination of 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear
and land interaction.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are 45 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.  Little
change in strength is likely before landfall in northwestern Mexico
later today.  Rapid weakening should occur after landfall, with
Odile expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 hours and completely
dissipate shortly thereafter.

The initial motion is now 015/5.  A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the northeast over the next day or so, with the center of
Odile expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of
California, northwestern Mexico, and southern Arizona before
dissipation.  The new forecast track is an update of the previous
track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

A large area of moisture associated with Odile is crossing
northwestern Mexico into the southwestern United States.  This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States.  Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.


INIT  17/0900Z 30.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 30.9N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 32.2N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 33.5N 110.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 08:49:39 UTC