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Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ44 KNHC 012034

200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014

Iselle has a well-defined structure in visible imagery and at times
seems to have been trying to form an eye.  However, the convective
pattern as observed in infrared satellite imagery has been a little
ragged and not as well structured.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are now unanimously T3.5/55 kt, but final-T estimates from the
UW-CIMSS ADT have actually dropped to T3.1/47 kt since this
morning.  Based on these numbers, as well as a 50-kt estimate from
a recent ASCAT-B pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.

The strengthening trend may be taking a temporary respite, but
environmental conditions should support further intensification
during the next 2-3 days.  Modest northerly shear appears to be
impinging on the storm, but that shear is expected to diminish in a
day or two.  By that time, thermodynamic conditions will become a
little more marginal as Iselle approaches the 26C sea surface
temperature isotherm.  The intensity models are in fairly good
agreement in showing modest strengthening, although the peak
intensities have decreased a bit.  Based on the latest guidance,
the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Iselle reaching a maximum
intensity of 70 kt in 36-48 hours.

The track models are also in good agreement, showing very little
spread during the first 3 days.  The subtropical ridge to the north
of Iselle should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward track
during that time.  Iselle's forward speed is then expected to slow
down on days 3 and 4 as it gets impeded by a mid-level ridge near
Hawaii, and then speed up again on day 5 when the ridge slides
eastward.  No significant changes were required to the official
track forecast, and the NHC points continue to lie very close the
model consensus TVCE.


INIT  01/2100Z 14.5N 126.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 15.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 15.9N 131.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 16.3N 133.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 16.6N 136.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 16.9N 138.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Aug-2014 20:34:33 UTC