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Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 051446
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015

Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 30 kt
removed deep convection from Kevin's low-level circulation,
beginning around 0000 UTC.  The deep convection, along with Kevin's
mid-level circulation, has since dissipated.  With no active
convection for some time, Kevin is being declared a post-tropical
remnant low.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt in
accordance with the latest satellite classifications and based on
the assumption that some spin down of the circulation has occurred
since the last advisory.  Global models depict Kevin degenerating
into a trough of low pressure in about 12 hours, and the official
forecast indicates dissipation in about a day.

The cyclone was moving north-northeastward overnight while slowing
down, but has since turned northward and recently north-
northwestward. The initial motion estimate is now 340/06.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected before the cyclone dissipates
tomorrow in agreement with the track model guidance.

For additional information on this remnant low, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 23.6N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Sep-2015 14:46:37 UTC