Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130235 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 Satellite images show the disturbance is still broad with little improvement in organization this evening. There is minimal convective banding, and most of the thunderstorm activity is displaced well away from the cloud system center. The broad low remains a 30-kt disturbance for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 6 kt, though it is uncertain due to the lack of a well-defined center. The near-term motion could be erratic and slightly more northward overnight while the disturbance organizes and forms a center. But, the track guidance agrees that as the system organizes and deepens, it will resume a northwestward motion and move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Little change is shown in the updated NHC forecast, which remains near the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, larger changes could be required in future issuances depending on where and when a center eventually forms. The broad structure does not suggest strengthening will occur quickly in the near term. Once the system consolidates, the warm sea surface temperatures and moist environment appear generally favorable for intensification. Although the regional models show the system reaching hurricane status, moderate (15-20 kt) easterly shear shown by the global models for the next several days could make it difficult for that much strengthening to occur. For now, the NHC intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a strong tropical storm, in line with the simple intensity consensus. Cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to weakening during the latter half of the forecast period, and the system is forecast to dissipate by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart