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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020834
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,
but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east
of the low-level center.  Unfortunately ASCAT missed the
circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB
were steady or decreased from six hours ago.  Therefore, the
cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.

The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level
trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over
the cyclone.  The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should
allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.
However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the
depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent
an asymmetric convective pattern.  The new NHC intensity forecast
continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching
tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak
intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory.  An
increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to
become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the
depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.

Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the
depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 335/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a
deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should
steer the depression generally northward through day 3.  Once it
becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift
westward in the low-level flow.  There are considerable speed
differences between the track models, presumably a result of how
soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared.  The updated NHC
track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and
is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 08:34:14 UTC