Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015

Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared
depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to
the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops.
Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of
the cyclone's surface center.  Subsequently, the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB.  Guidance still indicates that the depression could
become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours.  Afterward, the
cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of
the IVCN and FSSE forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt.  The depression is
forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system
over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days.  As the tropical
cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow
collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a
generally north-northwestward direction or meander until
dissipation.  The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and
is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF
blend) model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 20:31:51 UTC