Tropical Depression PATRICIA Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 140833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
200 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2009

PATRICIA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND
1800 UTC...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT
PASS AT 0504 UTC. REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TRANSIENT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL DISSIPATION. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...300/05. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW. THIS WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PATRICIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 22.8N 109.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N 110.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 23.1N 112.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 23.1N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 23.1N 115.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN