Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ44 KNHC 020834

200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,
but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east
of the low-level center.  Unfortunately ASCAT missed the
circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB
were steady or decreased from six hours ago.  Therefore, the
cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.

The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level
trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over
the cyclone.  The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should
allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.
However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the
depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent
an asymmetric convective pattern.  The new NHC intensity forecast
continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching
tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak
intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory.  An
increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to
become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the
depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.

Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the
depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 335/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a
deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should
steer the depression generally northward through day 3.  Once it
becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift
westward in the low-level flow.  There are considerable speed
differences between the track models, presumably a result of how
soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared.  The updated NHC
track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and
is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.


INIT  02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Berg

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 08:34:14 UTC