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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ44 KNHC 020232

800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some
developing convective bands. The center, however, is still exposed
due to shear and is located on the northeastern edge of the
thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on
T2.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the University of Wisconsin
CIMMS. Global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that the shear will
likely diminish, and since the cyclone is heading toward a pool of
warm waters, some strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days.
After that time, the cyclone should begin to interact with cooler
waters and a more stable environment, resulting in gradual

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 295 degrees at 9 knots. A nearly permanent mid-level high
pressure system over northern Mexico has been controlling the
tracks of many of the cyclones in this region, and this is same
story all over again. The NHC forecast calls for a west-northwest to
northwest track during the next 3 days with a slow turn to the north
thereafter. By then, the steering currents will probably collapse
and the cyclone will meander while it weakens.  The NHC forecast is
just a little bit to the south of the previous one following the
trend of the multi-model consensus TVCN, and considering that the
ECMWF and the latest GFS models are farther south than the


INIT  02/0300Z 17.8N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Oct-2014 02:32:40 UTC