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Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270903
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Madeline is gradually becoming better organized this morning, with
increasing convective banding noted near the center. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and
this intensity is supported by various objective estimates from
CIMSS and CIRA.

The initial motion is now 300/9.  For the next few days, Madeline
should move generally northwestward as it is steered by a segment of
the subtropical ridge.  After 72 hours, a turn toward the west is
likely as Madeline encounters the westward-building subtropical
ridge that is steering Hurricane Lester.  The track guidance has
shifted significantly to the north since the previous advisory, and
near the end of the forecast period there is a fair amount of
spread regarding whether Madeline will move near the Hawaiian
Islands or north of them.  The new forecast track is shifted
northward, but it lies to the south of the center of the guidance
envelope and the consensus models.

Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a
light-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3
days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in
showing Madeline becoming a hurricane in 36 hours or so.  After 72
hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass along
the forecast track should result in a slow weakening.  The new
intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast,
but it lies a little below the intensity consensus.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone
could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast
period.  It is important to remind users that the average 5-day
track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about
170 miles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 14.5N 138.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 15.1N 139.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 15.8N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 16.7N 141.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 17.8N 143.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 20.5N 150.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 20.5N 155.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven