Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion
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536 WTPZ44 KNHC 150255 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 knots. A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast Sunday night through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler water. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and generally in the middle of the various track aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later tonight as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then forecast Sunday onward as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi