536 
WTPZ44 KNHC 150255
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025
 
Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in 
organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 
knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 
45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed 
numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the 
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots.

Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 knots. A 
turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila is 
steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest 
U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then 
forecast Sunday night through dissipation as Dalila moves over much 
cooler water. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a 
post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and dissipating by Tuesday. 
The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous 
advisory, and generally in the middle of the various track aids.

Dalila should begin to weaken later tonight as some drier mid-level 
air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More 
steady weakening is then forecast Sunday onward as the system moves 
over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level 
environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous 
advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus 
guidance. 

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
 
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi