372 
WTPZ44 KNHC 130832
TCDEP4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the 
disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with the 
convective banding increasing and the circulation becoming better 
defined. However, the system does not yet have either enough 
organized convection or a sufficiently well-defined circulation to 
be considered a tropical cyclone.  The scatterometer data showed 
25-30 kt winds about 120 n mi south and southeast of the center, so 
the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 335/8 kt.  Satellite 
imagery shows that the depression is currently south of a mid- to 
upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico and southeast of 
a mid- to upper-level ridge over Baja California and the adjacent 
Pacific.  The dynamical models forecast that the trough will weaken 
and move eastward during the next 2-3 days, with the ridge building 
eastward to the north of the system.  This evolution should cause 
the disturbance to turn northwestward later today, followed by a 
west-northwestward and westward motion later in the forecast period. 
The forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and 
the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and 
just a little north of the previous track. There is a possibility 
of erratic motion today as the system gets better organized, and 
this may affect how close the system will come to the coast of 
Mexico.

The forecast track keeps the system over warm sea surface 
temperatures for the next 36-48 h.  However, a combination of the 
broad structure and moderate easterly vertical wind shear is likely 
to slow the development.  The new intensity guidance is a little 
lower than for the previous forecast, and the forecast peak 
intensity of 60 kt is near the high end of the guidance envelope.  
After 48 h, cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to 
steady weakening, and the system is forecast to dissipate
by 120 h.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring 
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, 
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven