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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230253
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

A persistent area of convection has developed near and over the
center of the depression since the last advisory.  In addition, a
recent SSMI/S overpass shows the low- to mid-level convective
banding has become better defined.  Based on this, the initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt, the upper end of the satellite
intensity estimates, and the depression is upgraded to Tropical
Storm Hilary.

Hilary should remain in an environment of light vertical shear and
warm sea surface temperatures for the next 4 days, and thus it
should at least steadily, if not rapidly, strengthen.  After day
4, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into stronger shear, and the new intensity forecast shows
weakening at that time.  The new intensity forecast lies below that
of the SHIPS model and the HCCA corrected consensus, and it is
possible an upward adjustment of the forecast intensities may be
required in later advisories.

The initial motion is 300/12. The main steering feature should be a
mid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the Pacific,
and this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward
through the forecast period.  Near the end of the period, there is
a possibility of interaction with Tropical Depression Ten-E,
although present indications in the large-scale guidance are this
should have a minimal impact on Hilary's track.  The new forecast
track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous track, and
it lies near the various consensus models.  The new track keeps
the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 11.5N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 12.1N 101.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 13.0N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 13.7N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 14.4N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven