Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm CELIA Forecast Discussion


Home   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 150840
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Enhanced infrared imagery and a recent SSMIS microwave overpass
show all that remains of Celia's deep convective cloud pattern is a
fragmented curved band displaced about 60 nm north-northeast of the
exposed circulation center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 40
kt, but is quite a bit higher than the subjective satellite
intensity estimates out of respect for the 45-50 kt winds that were
depicted in the earlier 14/1912 UTC ASCAT pass. Celia should
continue to gradually spin down, due to the sub-24C SSTs and the
surrounding stable air mass, and become a post-tropical cyclone by
tonight.  Although the latest Remote Sensing System's latest SST
analysis indicates slightly warmer SSTs of 25-26C ahead of Celia,
the global models still show increasing westerly shear in 36 hours,
which is expected to hamper any regeneration potential.  The
intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is
hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF
large-scale models.

Celia has been moving west-northwestward or 285/11 kt.  The
cyclone is forecast to turn westward later today as it weakens
further, becoming a shallow system, and is steered by the
low-level trades.  The model guidance reflects this scenario well
and the official NHC forecast splits between the previous forecast
track and the multi-model consensus.

Celia has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 22.0N 140.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 22.2N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  16/0600Z 22.4N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z 22.7N 146.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 23.2N 148.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 24.1N 153.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z 25.0N 158.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z 26.3N 163.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts