Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ44 KNHC 312039

300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

Animation of recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low pressure area well to the south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has a
well-defined circulation.  Recently, deep convection has formed
near and partially over the center.  On this basis, the system is
being designated as a tropical depression.  The current intensity
estimate is 30 kt, which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak
estimates at 1800 UTC.  The tropical cyclone is not in an ideal
environment for strengthening.  A broad upper-level cyclone to the
northwest is producing southwesterly shear in the path of the
depression, and global models predict that this shear may briefly
relax in 1 to 2 days, but increase thereafter.  Although the
official intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance,
it nonetheless shows weakening to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/9 kt.  A mid-level ridge
currently to the north of the depression is forecast to shift
eastward over the next few days.  As a result, the tropical
cyclone should turn toward the north in 48 to 72 hours.  There is
some spread in the model guidance, including significant
differences in predicted forward speed.  As a compromise, the
official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance,
and close to the dynamical model consensus.


INIT  31/2100Z 12.4N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 13.5N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 16.3N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 18.3N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 21.2N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 23.3N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 24.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 20:39:42 UTC