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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Forecast Discussion


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 03 2017

Lidia has not produced any deep convection for the past 12-15
hours, which means it is no longer a tropical cyclone and has
degenerated into a remnant low.  Its initial intensity is estimated
to be 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0 from TAFB, but
Lidia's winds should gradually decrease as it moves over the cold
waters west of Baja California.  Model guidance indicates that
Lidia's vorticity will merge with or become absorbed by a
deep-layer low to its west in the coming days, and the surface low
is expected to dissipate by 48 hours.

Lidia's initial motion is toward the northwest, or 315/7 kt.  High
pressure over the southwestern United States should steer the
remnant low toward the west-northwest beginning later today, and
this motion should continue until the circulation dissipates off the
coast of southern California.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Lidia.  For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 29.6N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  03/1800Z 30.3N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/0600Z 31.2N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 32.2N 121.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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