040 
WTPZ44 KNHC 140255
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this 
evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep 
convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while 
the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend 
of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for 
this advisory.  

Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as 
the system moves along the southern periphery of a building 
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A 
gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday, 
as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered 
by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast 
to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous 
as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has 
been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with 
the latest consensus model trends.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain 
over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for 
around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during 
this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to 
better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36 
hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady 
weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical 
remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest 
intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity 
guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack 
through storm dissipation. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy 
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima 
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides 
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
 
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart